The RBI is expected to cut rates in next policy.
'Course correction today would be good politics and also good economics,' notes T N Ninan.
Buoyed by an increase in public investment and incentives to boost manufacturing, India's economy is expected to grow by 8.3 per cent in the fiscal year 2021-22, less than the previous projection early this year before the country was hit by the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Bank has said in its latest report. World Bank chief economist for the South Asia Region Hans Timmer told PTI here that when one looks at the high frequency data, they see that as a result of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the recovery paused, and some indicate that the recovery actually declined briefly. "We project for this fiscal year 8.3 per cent (growth rate for Indian economy) that is less than we projected early in the year before the health crisis caused by the second wave. "Given the sharp contraction of the economy last year, it might not look like a lot, but in my view, that is actually very positive news, given the violent second wave and the severity of the health crisis," he said on Thursday.
In its latest interim Economic Assessment report released today, OECD said a moderate expansion is under way in most major advanced and emerging economies.
RE of GDP for 2015-16 show that the economy grew 7.9% in 2015-16, rather than the earlier estimate of 7.6 per cent.
Unlike the Advance Estimates which missed the impact of demonetisation, CEA's survey is likely to have a better take on Indian economy.
Corporate India is indicating cautious hiring in the March quarter of 2023 as concerns rise over possible recession and steady inflation, a survey said on Thursday. According to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, based on interviews with nearly 3,030 public and private employers, hiring intentions will decrease in the quarter both on year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis. During the quarter, 48 per cent employers expect to increase their staffing levels, 16 per cent anticipate a decrease in hiring intent and 34 per cent do not anticipate any change in hiring, resulting in a net employment outlook of 32 per cent.
Gold, which was hovering around $1,321 an ounce in January 2019, has already breached $1,600 per ounce in the past few sessions to a seven-year high.
'The Indian economy and the Indian financial sector today remain resilient and much better placed.'
'The finance minister in her Budget speech should spell out how exactly she intends to get back to the 7% track, and the hard decisions she intends to take in order to adjust to the realities of a slowing economy until growth momentum returns,' suggests T N Ninan.
For the first time, the value of card and mobile payments of Rs 10.57 trillion was more than ATM withdrawals of Rs 9.12 trillion in Q4 of fiscal 2019-20. In the months of lockdown, the gap may have widened further, but cash could be back in vogue when the situation normalises.
Exports in June rose by 23.52 per cent to $40.13 billion while the trade deficit ballooned to a record level of $26.18 billion mainly due to jump in gold and crude oil imports, the government data said on Thursday. The country's export growth in May was 20.55 per cent. Imports expanded by 57.55 per cent to $66.31 billion in June compared to the year-ago month, the data showed.
Growth in South Asia this year is forecast to be 7 per cent slightly, up from the 6.9 per cent recorded for 2003, the Asia Development Bank said on Wednesday.
The Indian economy, severely hit by the coronavirus pandemic, is projected to contract by a massive 10.3 per cent this year, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday. However, India is likely to bounce back with an impressive 8.8 per cent growth rate in 2021, thus regaining the position of the fastest growing emerging economy, surpassing China's projected growth rate of 8.2 per cent, the IMF said in its latest 'World Economic Outlook' report.
It's the first time in my memory that I have seen a negative expected return for equities, notes Akash Prakash. Hopefully, this implies the consensus is being too negative, and markets, as usual, will surprise everyone and deliver the least likely outcome.
In terms of magnitude of rate cuts, Morgan Stanley expects 50-100 basis points of policy rate cuts in 2015, depending on the inflation trajectory, which in turn will be dependent on the trend in commodity prices, fiscal deficit and rural wage growth.
Moody's assigns a 'Baa3' rating on India, with a stable outlook.
The Brics line-up has yielded to a shaky China-India story, with new question marks over China even as India remains a "B+" performer, says T N Ninan.
Former Union Finance Minister Manmohan Singh said the GDP growth rate might not exceed 7-7.25 per cent this year.
The brokerage said that the reform measures announced by the government will help growth only over the medium term and are not expected to have any benefit in the near-term.
India said its economy grew 7.3 percent in the October-December quarter.
Equity indices made an emphatic comeback on Friday after falling for seven straight sessions after the RBI hiked interest rates by 50 basis points on expected lines and projected inflation coming under control from January next year. A strong recovery in the rupee added to the momentum, traders said. Overcoming a wobbly start, the 30-share BSE Sensex soared 1,016.96 points or 1.80 per cent to settle at 57,426.92. During the day, it rallied 1,312.67 points or 2.32 per cent to 57,722.63.
According to HSBC, India's current account deficit is expected to narrow from 1.1 per cent of GDP in 2014 to 0.6 per cent in 2015.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to hold its policy interest rate at 6.75 per cent next week to stifle inflation.
India's gross domestic product grew by 4.8 per cent in July-September quarter of 2013-14 as against 5.2 per cent in same period of previous fiscal.
Indian economy to grow at 5.5 per cent in near term.
The finance ministry said on Tuesday that high energy and commodity prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine may provide an upside risk to inflation and continued vigil is required. "Going forward, elevated energy and commodity prices may act as an upside risk to the inflation outlook in the near-medium term. "Given the inherently unsustainable nature of high prices, international commodity prices are expected to level off early with an increase in supplies outside the crisis zone," the department of economic affairs said in its latest monthly economic report for February.
U.S. economic growth braked more sharply than expected in the first quarter.
ADB was urged to take up the Railways sector.
Concerned over elevated inflation, Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance, implying more rate cuts in the future if need arises to support the economy hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
About 60 per cent of net sown area of the country is rain-fed. With every one per cent deficit in rains, the country's gross domestic produce falls by 0.35 per cent.
India's real GDP growth is set to exceed 7 per cent for CY-2015.
In the last financial year, GDP growth was 7.3 per cent.
Advertisement revenues will go up in 2016-17 with automobiles and e-commerce being big contributors.
The government hopes of registering GDP growth rate ranging between 6.1-6.7 per cent in 2013-14.
The IMD attributed the projection to a weakening of El Nio and the Indian Ocean Dipole turning positive.
The steep fall in rupee came on a day when the Reserve Bank of India in its first quarter review of monetary policy kept the all key rates unchanged but cut the gross domestic growth forecast to 5.5 per cent for FY'14 from 5.7 per cent earlier.
RBI said inflation in the second half of the current fiscal is projected at 2.7-3.2%. It retained its GDP forecast for the current fiscal at 7.4%
India is projected to see moderate average annual growth of 5.9 per cent during the 2014-18 period amid the country witnessing macroeconomic weaknesses, according to Paris-based think tank OECD.
Top gainers include Yes Bank, HUL, Vedanta, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, Adani Ports, PowerGrid and Tata Motors, rising up to 5 per cent.
© 2026 Rediff.com - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances