India's growth in the last three financial years has averaged just 1.9%. It is natural to project rapid growth from this low base. Crucial to that would be the assumption that the economy has suffered no lasting damage from the pandemic, observes T N Ninan.
Markets ended weak tracking the expiry of April derivative contracts.
On the Sensex chart, Sun Pharma was the top loser, followed by Maruti, L&T, Hero Motocorp, Infosys, ONGC and RIL.
Growth in emerging market and developing economies will slow to 4.4 per cent in 2014, before rising to 5.0 per cent in 2015, it said.
Monsoon is likely to be below normal in the current year at 93%.
Capital needs are likely to increase substantially each year.
The rupee depreciated by 9 paise and settled at its all-time low level of 83.13 against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a surge in crude oil prices and strong American currency. Forex traders said the Indian rupee depreciated as the US dollar rose to the highest levels in six months. Moreover, elevated crude oil prices also weighed on rupee.
Prime Minister's key economic advisor C Rangarajan on Friday lowered the growth forecast for the current fiscal to 5.3 per cent from 6.4 per cent projected earlier and listed out host of measures including further liberalisation of foreign direct investment norms to improve economic condition.
The Economic Survey was tabled in the Parliament on Friday.
Budget-makers in North Block are looking to maintain this fiscal status quo, in spite of tax revenues nowhere close to where the government wants and in spite of possible higher expenditure commitments.
The RBI is expected to cut rates in next policy.
'All but one of the previous oil shocks brought either a change of government or a political crisis.' 'Is the government braced for stormy weather?' asks T N Ninan.
The World Bank on Tuesday projected India's economy to grow at 8.3 per cent in 2021 and 7.5 per cent in 2022, even as its recovery is being hampered by an unprecedented second wave of the COVID-19, the largest outbreak in the world since the beginning of the deadly pandemic. The Washington-based global lender, in its latest issue of Global Economic Prospects released here, noted that in India, an enormous second COVID-19 wave is undermining the sharper-than-expected rebound in activity seen during the second half of Fiscal Year 2020/21, especially in services.
"Now is the time for countries with room in their budgets to deploy -- or get ready to deploy -- fiscal firepower. In fact, low interest rates may give some policymakers additional money to spend," new IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said.
In its latest interim Economic Assessment report released today, OECD said a moderate expansion is under way in most major advanced and emerging economies.
'Course correction today would be good politics and also good economics,' notes T N Ninan.
China and India evoked the highest levels of confidence among major economies at 45 per cent and 40 per cent, respectively. The US was at 36 per cent, Canada at 27 per cent, the UK at 26 per cent, Germany at 20 per cent, France 18 per cent, and Japan having the least optimistic CEOs with only 11 per cent very confident of growing revenues in 2020.
Unlike the Advance Estimates which missed the impact of demonetisation, CEA's survey is likely to have a better take on Indian economy.
RE of GDP for 2015-16 show that the economy grew 7.9% in 2015-16, rather than the earlier estimate of 7.6 per cent.
Amid rising geopolitical risks, a vast majority of Indian CEOs have indicated in a survey that they are reducing or planning to reduce operating costs, even as they are more upbeat than their global peers on their country's economic prospects. However, most of the companies do not plan to cut their headcount or salaries, found the annual Global CEO Survey released by consultancy giant PwC here on the first day of the World Economic Forum meeting on Monday. The survey also found that about four in ten CEOs (40 per cent of global and 41 per cent of India respondents) do not expect their companies to be economically viable in 10 years if they continue on their current path.
Growth in South Asia this year is forecast to be 7 per cent slightly, up from the 6.9 per cent recorded for 2003, the Asia Development Bank said on Wednesday.
Buoyed by an increase in public investment and incentives to boost manufacturing, India's economy is expected to grow by 8.3 per cent in the fiscal year 2021-22, less than the previous projection early this year before the country was hit by the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Bank has said in its latest report. World Bank chief economist for the South Asia Region Hans Timmer told PTI here that when one looks at the high frequency data, they see that as a result of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the recovery paused, and some indicate that the recovery actually declined briefly. "We project for this fiscal year 8.3 per cent (growth rate for Indian economy) that is less than we projected early in the year before the health crisis caused by the second wave. "Given the sharp contraction of the economy last year, it might not look like a lot, but in my view, that is actually very positive news, given the violent second wave and the severity of the health crisis," he said on Thursday.
Gold, which was hovering around $1,321 an ounce in January 2019, has already breached $1,600 per ounce in the past few sessions to a seven-year high.
'The finance minister in her Budget speech should spell out how exactly she intends to get back to the 7% track, and the hard decisions she intends to take in order to adjust to the realities of a slowing economy until growth momentum returns,' suggests T N Ninan.
For the first time, the value of card and mobile payments of Rs 10.57 trillion was more than ATM withdrawals of Rs 9.12 trillion in Q4 of fiscal 2019-20. In the months of lockdown, the gap may have widened further, but cash could be back in vogue when the situation normalises.
In terms of magnitude of rate cuts, Morgan Stanley expects 50-100 basis points of policy rate cuts in 2015, depending on the inflation trajectory, which in turn will be dependent on the trend in commodity prices, fiscal deficit and rural wage growth.
Moody's assigns a 'Baa3' rating on India, with a stable outlook.
Former Union Finance Minister Manmohan Singh said the GDP growth rate might not exceed 7-7.25 per cent this year.
The Brics line-up has yielded to a shaky China-India story, with new question marks over China even as India remains a "B+" performer, says T N Ninan.
The Indian economy, severely hit by the coronavirus pandemic, is projected to contract by a massive 10.3 per cent this year, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday. However, India is likely to bounce back with an impressive 8.8 per cent growth rate in 2021, thus regaining the position of the fastest growing emerging economy, surpassing China's projected growth rate of 8.2 per cent, the IMF said in its latest 'World Economic Outlook' report.
India said its economy grew 7.3 percent in the October-December quarter.
According to HSBC, India's current account deficit is expected to narrow from 1.1 per cent of GDP in 2014 to 0.6 per cent in 2015.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to hold its policy interest rate at 6.75 per cent next week to stifle inflation.
India's gross domestic product grew by 4.8 per cent in July-September quarter of 2013-14 as against 5.2 per cent in same period of previous fiscal.
The brokerage said that the reform measures announced by the government will help growth only over the medium term and are not expected to have any benefit in the near-term.
Exports in June rose by 23.52 per cent to $40.13 billion while the trade deficit ballooned to a record level of $26.18 billion mainly due to jump in gold and crude oil imports, the government data said on Thursday. The country's export growth in May was 20.55 per cent. Imports expanded by 57.55 per cent to $66.31 billion in June compared to the year-ago month, the data showed.
Corporate India is indicating cautious hiring in the March quarter of 2023 as concerns rise over possible recession and steady inflation, a survey said on Thursday. According to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, based on interviews with nearly 3,030 public and private employers, hiring intentions will decrease in the quarter both on year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis. During the quarter, 48 per cent employers expect to increase their staffing levels, 16 per cent anticipate a decrease in hiring intent and 34 per cent do not anticipate any change in hiring, resulting in a net employment outlook of 32 per cent.
Indian economy to grow at 5.5 per cent in near term.
U.S. economic growth braked more sharply than expected in the first quarter.
ADB was urged to take up the Railways sector.
